Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
Current Space Weather Overview
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3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2025 Dec 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 03-Dec 05 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2).
| Dec 03 | Dec 04 | Dec 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 1.67 | 4.67 (G1) | 4.33 |
| 03-06UT | 2.67 | 4.67 (G1) | 4.33 |
| 06-09UT | 2.00 | 5.67 (G2) | 4.33 |
| 09-12UT | 3.00 | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| 12-15UT | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| 15-18UT | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| 18-21UT | 5.00 (G1) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| 21-00UT | 5.67 (G2) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
Rationale: Unsettled to active levels are likely to give way to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming periods by late 03 Dec due to combined CME shock effects and the arrival of fast solar wind. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming is then likely to continue into 04 Dec. It should also be noted that a chance (25%) for isolated periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming will exist on 03 and 04 Dec, especially if the corotating interaction region ahead of the high speed stream arrives with embedded shock from the 01 Dec CME.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
| Dec 03 | Dec 04 | Dec 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 or greater | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Rationale: The flare potential currently exhibited by Earth-facing active regions will keep 10 MeV protons at a slight risk (15%) of reaching the 10 particle flux unit threshold through 05 Dec.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
| Dec 03 | Dec 04 | Dec 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1-R2 | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| R3 or greater | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Rationale: Isolated to occasional R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected (75%) through 05 Dec, with a chance for a R3 (Strong) event (30%), given past flare history and the potential of current active regions on the disk. - WC
Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
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WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction |
| Move your cursor over the timeline to 'scrub' through the forecast. |
WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based prediction model of the heliosphere, used by the Space Weather Forecast Office to provide 1-4 day advance warning of solar wind structures and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that cause geomagnetic storms. Solar disturbances have long been known to disrupt communications, wreak havoc with geomagnetic systems, and to pose dangers for satellite operations.
Solar Cycle
Sun Spot Number Progression
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F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
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The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. The forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Prediction Panel has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025.
Radio Communications Impact
D-Region Absorption
D-Region Absorption Prediction
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The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere. The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.
VHF and HF Band Conditions
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Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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